The Phivolcs has warned that the possibility of a 'Big One' earthquake in Metro Manila is increasing as the year 2058 approaches. According to Director Teresito Bacolcol, it is not possible to predict the exact time of an earthquake, but there is a recurrence interval or between major movements of the West Valley Fault.
The 'Big One' is expected to be a 7.2 magnitude earthquake that could cause widespread damage in the cities of Quezon City, Marikina, Pasig, Makati, Taguig, and Muntinlupa, as well as Bulacan, Rizal, Cavite, and Laguna. The West Valley Fault last moved in the year 1658. Based on this 400 to 600 years, it is possible that a strong earthquake will occur again before or after 2058.
Bacolcol explained that as 2058 approaches, the chance of an earthquake occurring increases. But there is uncertainty, so it could happen earlier or later. Therefore, the reminder to be ready continues.
He added that successive earthquakes are normal because there are 180 active fault segments and 6 active trenches in the country. On average, 30 earthquakes are recorded per day, but most of them are not felt. The strong earthquakes in La Union, Cebu, Zambales, and Davao Oriental come from different faults and trenches.
Bacolcol's advice is to know the hazard and evacuation areas in your area to be prepared in case a strong earthquake occurs. Preparing now can save many lives and property that could cost billion pesos in damage.
